METI predicts lower ethylene demand

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released estimates for the country’s ethylene and ethylene-derived markets in 2008 and forecasts for 2009. METI forecast that overall requirements for ethylene in 2009, comprising domestic shipments of domestic products plus exports, will decline by 3.6% to 6.43 million tons compared with the 6.67 million tons it estimated for 2008. Domestic ethylene output in 2008 is pegged at 6,880,000 tons, an 11.1% year-on-year decline and a 13-year low. Cracker operating rate is anticipated to plunge to around 82% from 92.7%, although no turnaround or outages are slated in 2009. Domestic ethylene shipments declined by 6.8% while exports plunged by 27.8% due to lower demand in Asia, particularly China. Imports increased by 42.5% as a result of the follow-on effect of problems at Mitsubishi Chemical Corp.’s Kashima plant in 2007, and currency exchanges. (February 19, 2009)