PCMO demand in Asia will peak as early as 2029
Asia-Pacific will reach 75%–81% electric vehicle (EV) sales and electric models will account for 80% of two-wheeler sales in Asia, by 2040. Ann Ball, president, Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA), and regulatory affairs manager, QualiChem, outlined this scenario during the recently completed F+L Week conference, held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from June 14-15.
It is well-established that the growth of EVs will impact the future of automotive lubricants. However, much of the focus is on declines in engine oil demand. Ball stressed that despite this major focus, it is not only drivetrain lubricants that are affected by vehicle electrification. Ball has more than 35 years of experience in metalworking and related products. QualiChem develops and manufactures water treatment chemicals and metalworking solutions around the world.
During her presentation on What Do EVs Have in Store for Metalworking Fluids? Ball offered an outlook on metalworking fluid (MWF) demand, including new opportunities for coolants and other fluids required for EVs, particularly in Asia. ILMA commissioned a study by Kline & Co. that analysed data on EV adoption to predict lubricant demand. The research provided several scenarios: Likely, Conservative and Aggressive.
Ball outlined a two-part decline in passenger car motor oil (PCMO) demand. From 2021-2030 we will see a 14% decrease in demand in the Likely scenario. The declines will accelerate to 34% from 2031-2040. PCMO demand in Asia will peak as early as 2029 in an Aggressive scenario with a 39% decrease by 2040.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) production uses 33% less MWF than internal combustion engines, says Ball. Electric motors don’t contain the bearings, gears, camshafts and engines that require large volumes of MWF to produce.
Removal fluids account for 60% of MWFs and will suffer the biggest impact from the growth of EVs. Ball also noted a slight reduction in the volume of protecting and treating fluids. However, forming fluids will remain largely unchanged, she says.
In Kline’s Conservative scenario, MWF demand peaks in 2032 in Asia, whereas in the Aggressive scenario, it will peak three years sooner. Ball emphasized that customized EV fluids hold the greatest opportunity for lubricant manufacturers and marketers.
