Sinopec launches Global Energy Outlook 2060
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has released its first Global Energy Outlook 2060, marking the company’s debut international publication of a long-term energy forecast. The report was launched on 21 April at a major energy and chemical industry event in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, alongside the 2025 editions of the China Energy Outlook 2060 and the China Energy and Chemical Industry Outlook.
This milestone represents the first time a Chinese company has issued a mid- to long-term global energy outlook outside China. According to Sinopec, the publication leverages innovative methodologies to enhance forecasting accuracy and promote global dialogue on the energy transition.
The report anticipates that global primary energy consumption will peak at 26.71 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2045, before falling to 25.25 billion tonnes by 2060. Renewable energy is projected to account for over half of the global energy mix by 2060, while oil and gas are expected to comprise 35.7%. Oil demand is forecast to reach a high of 4.66 billion tonnes in 2030, with a shift in use from transport to industrial raw materials, although transport will still consume 40% of oil by 2060.
The outlook predicts dramatic growth in hydrogen use, which could rise from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% of the energy mix by 2060—surpassing 340 million tonnes per year. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is also set to expand, with projected capacity reaching 110 million tonnes by 2030 and 4.7 billion tonnes by 2060.
The accompanying China-focused reports forecast that the country’s primary energy consumption will plateau after 2030, with oil demand peaking before 2027. Non-fossil energy sources are expected to overtake fossil fuels in power generation by 2035, with carbon dioxide emissions peaking at between 10.8 and 11.2 billion tonnes before 2030.
Additionally, Sinopec expects China’s refining capacity to peak at 960–970 million tonnes per year by 2025. The chemical sector, however, is expected to experience ongoing overcapacity, particularly in olefins and aromatics.
