TotalEnergies Energy Outlook: Shaping the global energy transition
TotalEnergies has released its annual report, TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2023, presenting scenarios for the evolution of energy demand and the global energy system.
The analysis of the 2000-2021 period reveals that while the energy transition has commenced, the pace is insufficient. Fossil fuels still account for approximately 80% of energy, and investment in low-carbon energies is inadequate to meet growing demand.
The report identifies three geographical zones: NZ50 countries, China, and Global South, each facing distinct energy demand and transition challenges.
The report updates the Momentum and Rupture scenarios for the global energy system up to 2050, comparing them with a Current Course and Speed scenario to assess the impact of decarbonisation levers.
The Current Course and Speed scenario, if continued, would result in unsustainable temperature increases. In contrast, the Momentum scenario integrates decarbonisation strategies and implies significant energy efficiency gains, green electrification, phasing out of coal, and increased use of hydrogen. The Rupture scenario aims for a temperature increase of less than 2°C by 2100, requiring a wide diffusion of decarbonisation levers and increased penetration of renewable energies.
The report emphasises the need for accelerated deployment of low-carbon energy systems, increased investment in clean energy worldwide, and support for the Global South’s transition. It also highlights the importance of reducing fossil fuel consumption at the right pace and implementing no-regrets actions in the short term.