Lux Research releases report on global alternative fuel capacity
Lux Research recently released its report entitled “Nations Race to Build Alternative Fuel Capacity.” Lux Research is an independent firm which provides research and strategic advice on emerging technologies. Its most recent report was based upon data gathered from its comprehensive database of more than 1,200 alternative fuel production facilities around the world. The data were analyzed according to geography, technology, feedstock and fuel. Twenty countries around the world were also analyzed on eight short-term growth factors and nine long-term growth factors. Following are some of its findings:
- In 2011, capacity for alternative fuels like ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel is at 44.6 billion gallons. Systemic hurdles will limit growth to under 5% annually through 2015.
- Ethanol capacity is expected to grow to 35.1 billion gallons a year in 2015, with best growth opportunities in Brazil, Australia, China, Sweden and Thailand. Following close behind is biodiesel with an expected capacity growth reaching 15.8 billion gallons by 2015. Best growth opportunities will be in France, Canada, Thailand and Germany. All other alternative fuels, including biobutanol, renewable gasoline, bio jet and bio crude, production capacity will reach only 3.2 billion gallons in 2015.
- The alternative fuels industry will begin to focus on waste utilization, and the ethanol industry will look for ways to use cellulosic feedstock, particularly in countries like Sweden and Australia, which have much agricultural and forestry waste. The biodiesel industry will also consider waste oils like used cooking oil or brown grease found in municipal waste water.
- Beyond 2015, growth of ethanol and biodiesel will most likely be capped. Although ethanol and biodiesel accounts for 97% of all diesels, drop-in renewable gasoline and renewable diesel will begin to grow.
- Airlines will continue to explore biofuels as they are confronted with rising oil prices. The airlines will continue to push for the development of bio jet.
(December 7, 2011)
